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Marvin Mims Jr.

Marvin Mims Jr. Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Denver Broncos vs Cincinnati Bengals

Marvin Mims Jr. Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+350/-540).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -520 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -540.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Denver Broncos to be the 7th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 58.2% red zone pass rate.

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are projected by the projections to run 65.7 plays on offense in this contest: the 4th-most on the slate this week.

Opposing offenses have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Bengals defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the NFL.

While Marvin Mims Jr. has received 0.0% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a much bigger part of Denver's offense near the goal line in this week's contest at 8.9%.

As it relates to pocket protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Broncos grades out as the best in the NFL since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Broncos being a massive 7.5-point favorite this week.

The model projects the Denver Broncos to be the 9th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 55.4% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Marvin Mims Jr.'s 60.0% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects an impressive decrease in his receiving ability over last season's 78.0% mark.

The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has allowed the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (63.4%) to wideouts since the start of last season (63.4%).

Since the start of last season, the deficient Cincinnati Bengals run defense has been gouged for a colossal 1.15 TDs on the ground per game to the opposing side: the 3rd-highest rate in the league.

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