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Marvin Mims Jr. Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+560/-740).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -630 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -740.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The projections expect the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-most pass-oriented team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 60.7% red zone pass rate.Our trusted projections expect the Broncos to call the most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.The Broncos have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.5 plays per game.After totaling 21.0 air yards per game last season, Marvin Mims Jr. has undergone big improvement this season, currently boasting 38.0 per game.The Denver offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all pass game metrics across the board.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Broncos are a massive 13.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.The projections expect the Broncos to be the 11th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 55.1% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Chiefs, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 31.6 per game) this year.The Broncos are willing to include receivers in their ground game, and Marvin Mims Jr. has garnered 2.0% of red zone rush attempts this year (0th when it comes to WRs).With a measly 1.4% Red Zone Target Rate (14th percentile) this year, Marvin Mims Jr. has been as one of the wide receivers with the most usage near the goal line in the league.
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