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Marvin Mims Jr.

Marvin Mims Jr. Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Marvin Mims Jr. Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+480/-590).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -570 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -590.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's spread suggests a passing game script for the Broncos, who are -4-point underdogs.
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Broncos to pass on 60.6% of their downs: the 5th-highest rate among all teams this week.
  • The predictive model expects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 60.0% red zone pass rate.
  • The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.2 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • Marvin Mims Jr. has put up quite a few more air yards this year (52.0 per game) than he did last year (21.0 per game).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 6th-fewest in the league.
  • The Broncos are willing to include receivers in their running game, and Marvin Mims Jr. has been given 3.3% of red zone rush attempts this year (0th when it comes to wide receivers).
  • Marvin Mims Jr.'s possession skills have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 78.0% to 67.8%.
  • Marvin Mims Jr. has run for 0.11 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest figures in football when it comes to WRs and TEs (97th percentile).
  • The Chiefs defense has allowed the 7th-fewest TDs through the air in the NFL to wideouts: 0.67 per game this year.

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