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Marvin Mims Jr.

Marvin Mims Jr. Receptions
Player Prop Week 21

Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Marvin Mims Jr. Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-130/+126).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -130.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Broncos may throw the ball less in this contest (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling with backup QB Jarrett Stidham.
  • The Broncos are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
  • The leading projections forecast the Denver Broncos to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 62.2% pass rate.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to see the smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 130.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Marvin Mims Jr.'s 47.0% Route% this season reflects a noteworthy progression in his pass game usage over last season's 29.8% rate.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.1 pass attempts per game against the Patriots defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
  • Marvin Mims Jr.'s 71.4% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a substantial diminishment in his pass-catching talent over last season's 78.0% figure.
  • As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, New England's LB corps has been outstanding this year, projecting as the 4th-best in the NFL.

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