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Marvin Mims Jr.

Marvin Mims Jr. Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Marvin Mims Jr. Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+101/-129).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's spread suggests a passing game script for the Broncos, who are -4-point underdogs.
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Broncos to pass on 60.6% of their downs: the 5th-highest rate among all teams this week.
  • The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.2 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • Marvin Mims Jr. has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (51.2% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last season (29.8%).
  • The Denver Broncos O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 6th-fewest in the league.
  • Marvin Mims Jr.'s possession skills have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 78.0% to 67.8%.
  • As it relates to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Kansas City's collection of CBs has been outstanding this year, grading out as the best in the league.

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