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Marvin Mims Jr.

Marvin Mims Jr. Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 6

New York Jets vs Denver Broncos

 
 
 
Marvin Mims Jr. Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (+100/-112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 26.5 @ -112.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The model projects the Broncos to run the 5th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.6 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
  • The 9th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Broncos this year (a massive 59.6 per game on average).
  • After accumulating 21.0 air yards per game last year, Marvin Mims Jr. has posted big gains this year, currently sitting at 52.0 per game.
  • Marvin Mims Jr.'s 34.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 20.3.
  • As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Broncos profiles as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Broncos are an enormous 7-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Broncos to pass on 55.7% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
  • Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Jets, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the league (just 28.4 per game) this year.
  • Marvin Mims Jr.'s 66.5% Adjusted Completion% this season shows an impressive drop-off in his receiving prowess over last season's 78.0% figure.
  • Marvin Mims Jr.'s pass-catching efficiency has tailed off this year, notching a measly 5.57 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 8.22 figure last year.

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