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Marvin Mims Jr.

Marvin Mims Jr. Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 21

Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Marvin Mims Jr. Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-112/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ -112.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Broncos may throw the ball less in this contest (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling with backup QB Jarrett Stidham.
  • The Broncos are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
  • The leading projections forecast the Denver Broncos to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 62.2% pass rate.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to see the smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 130.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Marvin Mims Jr.'s 47.0% Route% this season reflects a noteworthy progression in his pass game usage over last season's 29.8% rate.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.1 pass attempts per game against the Patriots defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
  • Marvin Mims Jr.'s 71.4% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a substantial diminishment in his pass-catching talent over last season's 78.0% figure.
  • Marvin Mims Jr.'s 6.3 adjusted yards per target this season reflects a noteworthy regression in his pass-catching skills over last season's 8.2 mark.
  • Marvin Mims Jr.'s talent in grinding out extra yardage have declined this season, notching a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 12.18 rate last season.
  • The New England Patriots defense has allowed the 8th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 114.0) versus wideouts this year.

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