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Marvin Mims Jr.

Marvin Mims Jr. Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Marvin Mims Jr. Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-114/-117).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -114.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's spread suggests a passing game script for the Broncos, who are -4-point underdogs.
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Broncos to pass on 60.6% of their downs: the 5th-highest rate among all teams this week.
  • The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.2 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • Marvin Mims Jr. has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (51.2% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last season (29.8%).
  • Marvin Mims Jr. has put up quite a few more air yards this year (52.0 per game) than he did last year (21.0 per game).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 6th-fewest in the league.
  • Marvin Mims Jr.'s possession skills have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 78.0% to 67.8%.
  • Marvin Mims Jr.'s 7.2 adjusted yards per target this year represents a material decrease in his receiving proficiency over last year's 8.2 figure.
  • Marvin Mims Jr.'s talent in grinding out extra yardage have worsened this year, totaling a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 12.18 rate last year.
  • This year, the stout Kansas City Chiefs defense has allowed a meager 111.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing wide receivers: the fewest in the NFL.

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