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Marvin Mims Jr.

Marvin Mims Jr. Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Denver Broncos vs Tennessee Titans

Marvin Mims Jr. Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 33.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 37.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Broncos O-line profiles as the best in football last year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

With an outstanding 78.0% Adjusted Catch Rate (93rd percentile) last year, Marvin Mims ranks as one of the best possession receivers in football among WRs.

Marvin Mims is positioned as one of the best WRs in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging an outstanding 12.18 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year while checking in at the 100th percentile.

The Tennessee Titans pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.07 yards-after-the-catch last year: the 4th-most in the NFL.

When it comes to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Tennessee's collection of CBs has been awful last year, profiling as the 6th-worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread suggests an extreme running game script for the Broncos, who are a massive favorite by 8 points.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Broncos to pass on 53.4% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.

The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 125.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing offenses teams have been wary to pass too much against the Tennessee Titans, totaling the fewest attempts in football (a measly 26.9 per game) last year.

With a sizeable 31.7% Route Participation% (22nd percentile) last year, Marvin Mims rates among the wide receivers with the biggest workloads in football.

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