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Marquise Brown

Marquise Brown Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens

Marquise Brown Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+220/-295).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -285 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -295.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 65.8% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to be the most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 64.9% red zone pass rate.

At the moment, the 3rd-quickest paced offense in the league (in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Chiefs.

The Ravens defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in the league (38.5 per game) since the start of last season.

Marquise Brown rates in the 79th percentile for wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive involvement) with a massive 55.6 figure this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

While Marquise Brown has accounted for 25.0% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a less important option in Kansas City's passing attack near the end zone in this game at 18.5%.

Since the start of last season, the formidable Baltimore Ravens defense has conceded a mere 63.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 6th-lowest rate in the NFL.

When it comes to the safeties' role in defending against the run, Baltimore's unit has been easily exploitable since the start of last season, projecting as the 2nd-worst in football. in football.

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