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Marquise Brown

Marquise Brown Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Marquise Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-200/+150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -175 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -200.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 62.2% of their opportunities: the 3rd-greatest clip among all teams this week.
  • The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to run the 2nd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.8 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • The 10th-highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a staggering 58.9 per game on average).
  • The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.
  • Marquise Brown has been one of the top wide receivers in the game this year, averaging a stellar 3.9 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 80th percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's spread suggests a running game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 4 points.
  • While Marquise Brown has garnered 17.6% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a much smaller part of Kansas City's passing offense in this week's game at 10.5%.
  • The Denver Broncos pass defense has surrendered the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (62%) to wide receivers this year (62.0%).
  • The Broncos safeties rank as the 5th-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

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