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Marquise Brown

Marquise Brown Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 14

Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Marquise Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -170 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -120.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 61.2% of their chances: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
  • The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The 4th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a colossal 61.1 per game on average).
  • The Chiefs O-line profiles as the 6th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing attack statistics across the board.
  • Marquise Brown ranks as one of the most reliable receivers in football, catching a remarkable 72.1% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 82nd percentile among wideouts.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A running game script is indicated by the Chiefs being a 3.5-point favorite this week.
  • The leading projections forecast Marquise Brown to be a much smaller part of his team's air attack in this week's game (9.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (14.3% in games he has played).
  • Marquise Brown has been one of the weakest wide receivers in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 1st percentile.
  • The Houston Texans defense has given up the fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 114.0) versus wideouts this year.
  • This year, the tough Houston Texans defense has yielded a meager 56.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the lowest rate in the NFL.

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