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Marquise Brown

Marquise Brown Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 22

Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs

Marquise Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 39.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 44.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Right now, the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in the league (68.3% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Chiefs.

The model projects the Chiefs offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.02 seconds per snap.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

The Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

Marquise Brown's 61.2% Adjusted Catch Rate this year illustrates a remarkable boost in his receiving ability over last year's 55.4% mark.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Eagles, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 26.4 per game) this year.

After totaling 99.0 air yards per game last year, Marquise Brown has seen a big downtick this year, now pacing 65.0 per game.

Marquise Brown's 48.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 64.2.

Marquise Brown has accrued many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (25.0) this season than he did last season (45.0).

The Philadelphia Eagles defense has given up the fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 105.0) vs. WRs this year.

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