Marquise Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

NFL · Player Props

Marquise Brown

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans · Week 16, 2024

Updated Dec 21, 2024 5:56 PM EST

Analysis

Marquise Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.8% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 2nd-most plays in the league have been run by the Chiefs this year (a colossal 61.4 per game on average).
The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may slide.
When it comes to air yards, Marquise Brown ranks in the lofty 96th percentile among WRs last year, accruing a remarkable 99.0 per game.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game.
Our trusted projections expect Marquise Brown to be a much smaller part of his team's passing offense in this week's game (8.0% projected Target Share) than he has been last year (25.0% in games he has played).
With a weak 55.4% Adjusted Completion Rate (7th percentile) last year, Marquise Brown stands as one of the worst possession receivers in the NFL when it comes to wide receivers.
Marquise Brown ranks as one of the least effective receivers in football, averaging a lowly 6.28 adjusted yards-per-target last year while checking in at the 7th percentile when it comes to WRs
This year, the strong Houston Texans defense has yielded a puny 58.0% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wideouts: the 2nd-smallest rate in football.