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Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 6

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs San Francisco 49ers

 
 
 
Marquez Valdes-Scantling Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+850/-1200).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The 49ers may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be starting backup quarterback Mac Jones.
  • At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the 49ers are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on passing than their standard approach.
  • The model projects the 49ers as the 5th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 61.1% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the San Francisco 49ers are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run 66.3 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-highest number on the slate this week.
  • The 49ers have run the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 64.2 plays per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the 10th-most run-heavy team in football in the red zone (45.4% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the 49ers.
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been not been very involved his team's pass game near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which puts him in the 1st percentile when it comes to wideouts.
  • After averaging 56.0 air yards per game last season, Marquez Valdes-Scantling has gotten worse this season, currently pacing 13.0 per game.
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling's 8.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 32.7.
  • With a poor 43.5% Adjusted Catch% (13th percentile) since the start of last season, Marquez Valdes-Scantling rates among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL when it comes to wide receivers.

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