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Marquez Valdes-Scantling Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1300/-1650).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -4000 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1650.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The San Francisco 49ers will be rolling out backup QB Mac Jones this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the 49ers are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan.Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the 49ers to pass on 62.2% of their downs: the 3rd-greatest clip among all teams this week.The model projects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 137.2 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 60.2 plays per game.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been not been very involved his team's passing attack near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which ranks him in the 1st percentile when it comes to wideouts.Marquez Valdes-Scantling's 5.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 32.7.With a feeble 44.1% Adjusted Catch Rate (13th percentile) since the start of last season, Marquez Valdes-Scantling stands as one of the most hard-handed receivers in football when it comes to WRs.Since the start of last season, the stout Los Angeles Rams defense has given up a measly 68.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 5th-smallest rate in the NFL.As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Los Angeles's LB corps has been one of the most skilled this year, projecting as the 4th-best in the league.
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