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Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

San Francisco 49ers vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+660/-1450).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +660 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +660.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 49ers may pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to start backup quarterback Brock Purdy.

Opposing offenses have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league.

Since the start of last season, the weak Jaguars defense has conceded a colossal 1.05 TDs through the air per game to opposing wide receivers: the 8th-biggest rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 3.5-point advantage, the 49ers are favored in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.

The model projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 5th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 53.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Right now, the 9th-most run-focused offense in football near the end zone (45.7% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the San Francisco 49ers.

Right now, the 3rd-slowest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the San Francisco 49ers.

With a measly 0.0% Red Zone Target Rate (1st percentile) this year, Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been among the WRs with the highest volume near the end zone in the NFL.

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