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Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 19

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Marquez Valdes-Scantling Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+730/-1400).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +950 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +730.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Steelers are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.7% of their plays: the highest frequency among all teams this week.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to see 133.5 offensive plays run: the most on the slate this week.
  • When talking about pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Steelers ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year.
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 44.0% to 53.7%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Steelers have run the fewest plays in football this year, averaging a measly 53.9 plays per game.
  • After totaling 56.0 air yards per game last season, Marquez Valdes-Scantling has fallen off this season, currently boasting 35.0 per game.
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling's 21.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 32.7.
  • This year, the formidable Houston Texans defense has conceded a measly 64.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the best rate in the league.
  • The Texans defense has surrendered the 5th-fewest touchdowns through the air in football to wide receivers: 0.59 per game this year.

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