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Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
Marquez Valdes-Scantling Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+470/-660).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -450 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -660.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The model projects the Steelers to call the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.1 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
  • The model projects Marquez Valdes-Scantling to be a more important option in his offense's air attack near the goal line in this week's game (11.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (2.3% in games he has played).
  • The Pittsburgh offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing game stats across the board.
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling's 47.9% Adjusted Catch% this year illustrates a remarkable gain in his receiving skills over last year's 44.0% rate.
  • The Browns defense has conceded the 7th-most TDs through the air in the NFL to wide receivers: 1.00 per game this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A running game script is suggested by the Steelers being a 4.5-point favorite this week.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 3rd-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 52.3 plays per game.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being projected in this game) generally mean lessened passing effectiveness, reduced pass volume, and higher ground volume.
  • Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the Cleveland Browns, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in the league (just 30.0 per game) this year.
  • After accumulating 56.0 air yards per game last season, Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been a disappointment this season, now pacing 24.0 per game.

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