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Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receptions
Player Prop Week 19

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+158/-165).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +158 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +158.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Steelers are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.7% of their plays: the highest frequency among all teams this week.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to see 133.5 offensive plays run: the most on the slate this week.
  • When talking about pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Steelers ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year.
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 44.0% to 53.7%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Steelers have run the fewest plays in football this year, averaging a measly 53.9 plays per game.
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling's 21.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 32.7.
  • The Houston Texans pass defense has surrendered the lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (55.9%) vs. wide receivers this year (55.9%).
  • As it relates to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Houston's collection of CBs has been phenomenal this year, profiling as the 4th-best in the league.

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