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Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Detroit Lions vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+170/-182).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +160 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +170.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • An extreme passing game script is implied by the Steelers being a heavy -7.5-point underdog this week.
  • Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Steelers to pass on 65.3% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
  • The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.9 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
  • The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.
  • The Steelers O-line grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all passing game statistics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 51.3 plays per game.
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling's 10.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 32.7.
  • With a measly 0.9 adjusted catches per game (11th percentile) this year, Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been among the weakest wide receivers in the NFL in the league.
  • The Detroit Lions pass defense has conceded the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (62.3%) versus WRs this year (62.3%).

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