Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receiving Yards

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NFL · Player Props

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 12, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Right now, the most pass-heavy team in football (69.3% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Chiefs.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling's 64.0% Adjusted Completion Rate this season indicates a an impressive gain in his receiving ability over last season's 54.3% rate.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling's pass-game efficiency has improved this season, accumulating 10.14 adjusted yards-per-target vs a mere 8.85 mark last season.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has conceded the highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (79.5%) to WRs this year (79.5%).
The Broncos pass defense has exhibited weak efficiency against WRs this year, allowing 10.27 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-most in football.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a heavy 10.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 20-mph being called for in this game) typically mean decreased passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and increased run volume.
Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Broncos, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the league (just 32.4 per game) this year.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been a much smaller piece of his team's air attack this year (6.2% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (12.8%).