Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Marquez Valdes-Scantling

NFL · Player Props

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+175/-235).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 136.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling's ball-catching skills have been refined this season, with his Completion% rising from 53.9% to 63.5%.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has conceded the 6th-highest Completion% in football (69.5%) to wide receivers this year (69.5%).
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has conceded the 7th-most passing touchdowns in the NFL to wide receivers: 1.00 per game this year.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a massive 9.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 9th-least in football.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has put up significantly fewer air yards this year (59.0 per game) than he did last year (81.0 per game).
Marquez Valdes-Scantling's 32.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 40.7.
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers profile as the 6th-best collection of LBs in the league this year in pass coverage.

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