Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Marquez Valdes-Scantling

NFL · Player Props

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving TD

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+211/-321).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +274 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +211.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 69.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 61.9 plays per game.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling's possession skills have been refined this season, with his Completion% rising from 53.9% to 62.0%.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has conceded the 5th-most passing touchdowns in football to wideouts: 1.22 per game this year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars safeties project as the 9th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has compiled significantly fewer air yards this season (57.0 per game) than he did last season (81.0 per game).
Marquez Valdes-Scantling's 32.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 40.7.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling ranks in the 1st percentile among WRs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a measly 0.00 per game.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has conceded the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (63.1%) to wideouts this year (63.1%).

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