Marquez Callaway Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Marquez Callaway

NFL · Player Props

Marquez Callaway

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving TD

New Orleans Saints vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 8, 2022 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Marquez Callaway Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+434/-989).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -759 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -989.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has given up the most touchdowns through the air in the league to WRs: 1.00 per game this year.
The New Orleans Saints offensive line has allowed their QB 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The New Orleans Saints have been faced with a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Marquez Callaway has totaled significantly fewer air yards this season (39.0 per game) than he did last season (64.0 per game).
Marquez Callaway's 22.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 46.9.
Marquez Callaway's sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 56.6% to 51.9%.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties profile as the 6th-best collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.

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