Marquez Callaway Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Marquez Callaway

NFL · Player Props

Marquez Callaway

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving TD

New Orleans Saints vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Marquez Callaway Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+234/-385).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +393 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +234.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 5th-fastest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 27.44 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 5th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Marquez Callaway to be much more involved in his team's passing offense near the goal line this week (17.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (5.0% in games he has played).

Favors Under

Marquez Callaway has put up far fewer air yards this season (24.0 per game) than he did last season (64.0 per game).
Marquez Callaway's 14.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 46.9.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has surrendered the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (63.2%) vs. wide receivers this year (63.2%).
The Cincinnati Bengals defense has allowed the least passing touchdowns in football to wide receivers: 0.20 per game this year.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers rank as the 8th-best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

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