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Mark Andrews Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+198/-220).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -205 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -220.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Baltimore Ravens will be rolling out backup QB Lamar Jackson this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.Mark Andrews has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 23.5% this year, which ranks him in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.Mark Andrews ranks in the 88th percentile among tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive volume) with a whopping 36.0 mark this year.Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest rate in the NFL versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year (77.5% Adjusted Completion%).As it relates to the linebackers' role in run defense, Miami's unit has been very good this year, profiling as the 8th-best in the NFL.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 7.5-point advantage, the Ravens are a massive favorite in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their standard game plan.The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens as the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 46.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.Right now, the 5th-most run-focused offense in the league near the goal line (48.6% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Ravens.Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to see just 120.9 offensive plays run: the lowest number out of all the games this week.The 3rd-fewest plays in football have been called by the Baltimore Ravens this year (a lowly 50.1 per game on average).
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