Mark Andrews Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Mark Andrews

NFL · Player Props

Mark Andrews

TE · Baltimore Ravens

Touchdowns

Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots · Week 16, 2025

Updated Dec 22, 2025 1:12 AM EST

Analysis

Mark Andrews Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+156/-176).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +160 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +156.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a top-tier 26.4% Red Zone Target Rate (95th percentile) this year, Mark Andrews places among the TEs with the most usage near the goal line in football.
Mark Andrews's 35.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 83rd percentile for tight ends.
Mark Andrews grades out in the 86th percentile among TEs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an excellent 0.33 per game.
This year, the shaky Patriots defense has conceded a massive 73.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 8th-worst rate in football.
This year, the daunting Patriots run defense has allowed a paltry 0.50 rushing TDs per game to the opposing side: the 2nd-best rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Ravens are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a running game script.
The model projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 4th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 51.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Ravens to be the 7th-most run-oriented offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 47.7% red zone run rate.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the model to have just 127.0 total plays called: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.
The Baltimore Ravens have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 51.9 plays per game.

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