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Mark Andrews

Mark Andrews Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Mark Andrews Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+184/-205).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +205 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +184.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the model to see 132.7 offensive plays called: the 3rd-most out of all the games this week.
  • With a sizeable 24.1% Red Zone Target% (94th percentile) this year, Mark Andrews has been as one of the tight ends with the highest volume near the end zone in the league.
  • Mark Andrews slots into the 86th percentile among tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) with a monstrous 36.3 mark this year.
  • With a remarkable rate of 0.50 per game through the air (95th percentile), Mark Andrews stands as one of the leading receiving TD-scorers in football when it comes to TEs this year.
  • Opposing teams have rushed for the 2nd-fewest touchdowns in the NFL (0.33 per game) against the Browns defense this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 7.5-point advantage, the Ravens are a huge favorite this week, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
  • The model projects the Ravens as the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 48.9% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • Right now, the 5th-most run-focused offense in football in the red zone (48.2% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Ravens.
  • The 3rd-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Baltimore Ravens this year (a lowly 51.6 per game on average).
  • The weather report calls for 24-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

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