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Mark Andrews

Mark Andrews Receptions
Player Prop Week 18

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Mark Andrews Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+135/-172).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in football.
  • The model projects Mark Andrews to accumulate 5.0 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
  • Mark Andrews's 36.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive volume) grades out among the best in football: 84th percentile for tight ends.
  • The Steelers pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (81.1%) to tight ends this year (81.1%).
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties project as the 9th-worst group of safeties in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Ravens are big underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.
  • Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Ravens to pass on 60.3% of their chances: the 9th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
  • The Ravens offense has played at the 3rd-most sluggish pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 30.46 seconds per snap.
  • The Ravens O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
  • Mark Andrews's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 81.8% to 74.5%.

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