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Mark Andrews

Mark Andrews Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Mark Andrews Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+119/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -137 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -135.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect Mark Andrews to total 4.8 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 78th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
  • Mark Andrews has been an integral part of his team's pass game, earning a Target Share of 16.7% this year, which puts him in the 84th percentile when it comes to TEs.
  • The Patriots pass defense has been gouged for the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (77.5%) to TEs this year (77.5%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Ravens are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a running game script.
  • The model projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 4th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 51.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the model to have just 127.0 total plays called: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.
  • The Baltimore Ravens have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 51.9 plays per game.
  • The Baltimore Ravens O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative influence on all passing attack stats across the board.

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