Mark Andrews Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Mark Andrews

NFL · Player Props

Mark Andrews

TE · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots · Week 16, 2025

Updated Dec 22, 2025 1:22 AM EST

Analysis

Mark Andrews Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+119/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -137 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect Mark Andrews to total 4.8 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 78th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Mark Andrews has been an integral part of his team's pass game, earning a Target Share of 16.7% this year, which puts him in the 84th percentile when it comes to TEs.
The Patriots pass defense has been gouged for the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (77.5%) to TEs this year (77.5%).

Favors Under

The Ravens are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a running game script.
The model projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 4th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 51.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the model to have just 127.0 total plays called: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.
The Baltimore Ravens have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 51.9 plays per game.
The Baltimore Ravens O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative influence on all passing attack stats across the board.

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