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Mark Andrews

Mark Andrews Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Baltimore Ravens vs New York Jets

 
 
 
Mark Andrews Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -130.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The model projects Mark Andrews to notch 5.5 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to TEs.
  • With a remarkable 17.2% Target% (85th percentile) this year, Mark Andrews ranks as one of the tight ends with the biggest workloads in the NFL.
  • When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New York's LB corps has been dreadful this year, projecting as the 9th-worst in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • An extreme running game script is implied by the Ravens being a heavy 14-point favorite in this week's contest.
  • Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Ravens to pass on 48.9% of their plays: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • The Baltimore Ravens have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 51.8 plays per game.
  • The Baltimore offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
  • Mark Andrews's 77.1% Adjusted Completion% this season indicates a meaningful decline in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 81.8% mark.

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