Mark Andrews Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Mark Andrews

NFL · Player Props

Mark Andrews

TE · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 17, 2023 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Mark Andrews Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-160/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Ravens offense to lean 3.6% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Todd Monken now calling the plays.
Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally mean increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower rush volume.
The projections expect Mark Andrews to total 6.6 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.
The Ravens offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all air attack stats across the board.
With an outstanding 4.8 adjusted receptions per game (92nd percentile) this year, Mark Andrews stands among the leading TE receiving threats in the league.

Favors Under

This week's line implies a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 3.5 points.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Ravens to pass on 51.6% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Ravens are anticipated by the predictive model to run only 62.8 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-fewest on the slate this week.
Mark Andrews has been much less involved in his team's passing attack this year (23.1% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (29.9%).

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