Mark Andrews Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Mark Andrews

NFL · Player Props

Mark Andrews

TE · Baltimore Ravens

Receiving Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 4:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Mark Andrews Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 52.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 52.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 52.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Mark Andrews has run a route on 93.3% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking in the 100th percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects Mark Andrews to accrue 7.5 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile among TEs.
Mark Andrews has accumulated a monstrous 77.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 100th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

The Ravens are a massive 7.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 49.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the NFL.
Mark Andrews's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 65.7% to 62.1%.
Mark Andrews's pass-catching effectiveness has declined this season, totaling just 6.05 yards-per-target vs a 7.76 figure last season.

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