Mark Andrews Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Mark Andrews

NFL · Player Props

Mark Andrews

TE · Baltimore Ravens

Receiving TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Mark Andrews Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+129/-180).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +139 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +129.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Ravens to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Mark Andrews has put up a colossal 95.0 air yards per game this year: 100th percentile among tight ends.
Mark Andrews's 76.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 61.7.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Baltimore Ravens have run the 7th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 54.1 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Mark Andrews to be much less involved in his team's pass attack near the end zone this week (30.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (37.1% in games he has played).
Mark Andrews's possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 73.1% to 67.8%.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties project as the 8th-best group of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line has afforded their quarterback a measly 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

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