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Marcus Mariota

Marcus Mariota Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 10

Washington Commanders vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
Marcus Mariota Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+100/-365).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +365 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +100.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Commanders may take to the air less in this game (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling out backup QB Marcus Mariota.
  • An extreme passing game script is implied by the Commanders being a heavy -8-point underdog in this week's game.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Commanders offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 27.57 seconds per snap.
  • This year, the feeble Detroit Lions defense has conceded a monstrous 2.00 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing QBs: the 6th-worst rate in football.
  • The Detroit Lions linebackers profile as the best group of LBs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Commanders to be the 3rd-most run-centric team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 48.6% red zone run rate.
  • While Marcus Mariota has accounted for 11.1% of his team's red zone run game usage in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a more important option in Washington's rushing attack near the goal line in this week's contest at 23.0%.
  • Marcus Mariota's passing accuracy has tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 76.3% to 63.0%.
  • With a remarkable ratio of 0.25 rushing touchdowns per game (88th percentile), Marcus Mariota places among the top rushing QBs in football this year.
  • This year, the fierce Lions defense has conceded a meager 66.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 6th-lowest rate in football.

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