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Marcus Mariota TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+174/-225).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +178 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +174.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Washington Commanders will be forced to utilize backup QB Marcus Mariota in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.At a -10.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are giant underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their typical approach.The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.This year, the deficient Chiefs defense has surrendered a colossal 75.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the largest rate in the NFL.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Washington Commanders to pass on 59.8% of their chances: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week.At the present time, the least pass-heavy offense in football in the red zone (50.5% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Commanders.The Washington Commanders have run the fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.7 plays per game.This week, Marcus Mariota is forecasted by the model to have the 6th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 36.7. Opposing teams teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Kansas City Chiefs, totaling the fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 29.1 per game) this year.
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