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Marcus Mariota

Marcus Mariota TD Passes
Player Prop Week 10

Washington Commanders vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
Marcus Mariota TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+163/-176).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +156 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +163.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Commanders may take to the air less in this game (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling out backup QB Marcus Mariota.
  • An extreme passing game script is implied by the Commanders being a heavy -8-point underdog in this week's game.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Commanders offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 27.57 seconds per snap.
  • This year, the feeble Detroit Lions defense has conceded a monstrous 2.00 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing QBs: the 6th-worst rate in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Commanders to be the 3rd-least pass-focused team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 51.4% red zone pass rate.
  • Marcus Mariota's passing accuracy has tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 76.3% to 63.0%.
  • This year, the fierce Lions defense has conceded a meager 66.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 6th-lowest rate in football.
  • The Lions linebackers profile as the 4th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

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