Marcus Mariota TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Atlanta Falcons

TD Passes

Cincinnati Bengals vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 5:01 PM EST

Analysis

Marcus Mariota TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-260/+198).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 41.0 pass attempts per game versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
The Cincinnati Bengals defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.58 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 2nd-worst in football since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Atlanta Falcons have incorporated some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (7th-most in the league), which can make an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 51.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the least pass-heavy team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 50.6% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons offense to be the 8th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.39 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to attempt 29.4 passes in this contest, on average: the 2nd-least of all QBs.
Marcus Mariota has been among the least accurate quarterbacks in football this year with a 60.1% Completion%, grading out in the 21st percentile.