Marcus Mariota Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Marcus Mariota

NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Completions

Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Marcus Mariota Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Atlanta Falcons have utilized some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (7th-most in the league), which can make an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 45.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to run the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 52.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to attempt 25.8 passes in this contest, on average: the 3rd-least of all QBs.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.

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