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Marcus Mariota

Marcus Mariota Carries
Player Prop Week 11

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Marcus Mariota Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-126/+100).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Commanders to be the 9th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 44.4% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • In this game, Marcus Mariota is projected by the predictive model to notch the 4th-most rush attempts out of all quarterbacks with 7.0.
  • The model projects Marcus Mariota to be a more integral piece of his team's ground game in this game (24.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (13.5% in games he has played).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Washington Commanders will be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
  • The model projects the Commanders to call the 8th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The Commanders have called the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.1 plays per game.
  • The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.
  • As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Miami's LB corps has been phenomenal this year, grading out as the 9th-best in football.

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