Malik Willis TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Malik Willis

NFL · Player Props

Malik Willis

QB · Tennessee Titans

TD Passes

Tennessee Titans vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 17, 2022

Updated Dec 29, 2022 5:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Malik Willis TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+132/-177).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -177.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Titans are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have utilized play action on 30.3% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (7th-most in football), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 52.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 8th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 53.8% red zone pass rate.
The Tennessee Titans have run the least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 52.8 plays per game.
The Tennessee Titans O-line ranks as the worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 6th-best collection of LBs in football this year in covering receivers.

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