Malik Willis Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Malik Willis

NFL · Player Props

Malik Willis

QB · Tennessee Titans

Rushing Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 17, 2022

Updated Dec 29, 2022 5:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Malik Willis Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+250/-350).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 40.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -350.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 9th-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 47.8% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Dallas Cowboys defensive tackles profile as the 6th-worst group of DTs in the league this year in regard to run defense.
The Tennessee Titans have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.
The Tennessee Titans have utilized some form of misdirection on 50.7% of their plays since the start of last season (10th-most in the NFL), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

Favors Under

The Titans are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
The Tennessee Titans have run the least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 52.8 plays per game.
The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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