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Malik Washington

Malik Washington Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Malik Washington Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -145.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • This year, the deficient Washington Commanders pass defense has yielded a staggering 69.8% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wideouts: the 4th-worst rate in football.
  • The Washington cornerbacks profile as the worst CB corps in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Dolphins have been the 8th-least pass-oriented offense in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 58.5% pass rate.
  • Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Dolphins are projected by the model to run just 62.4 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The 4th-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Miami Dolphins this year (only 51.7 per game on average).
  • The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

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