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Malik Heath

Malik Heath Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers

Malik Heath Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+810/-2400).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1350 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -2400.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 10th-most pass-heavy team in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 57.6% red zone pass rate.

The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.

The Green Bay offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

The Dallas Cowboys defense has been torched for the most TDs through the air in the league to wide receivers: 1.25 per game since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Packers are a 6.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a running game script.

The projections expect the Packers to run the 6th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

The Packers have run the 4th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling just 55.3 plays per game.

Opposing offenses have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game versus the Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 3rd-fewest in football.

Malik Heath has been not been very involved his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which ranks him in the 1st percentile among wideouts.

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