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Mack Hollins

Mack Hollins Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Mack Hollins Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+600/-860).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +710 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +600.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Patriots are an enormous 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
  • At the present time, the 4th-most pass-oriented team in football near the goal line (60.7% in a neutral context) according to the model is the New England Patriots.
  • The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • The Patriots O-line profiles as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong influence on all passing game stats across the board.
  • Mack Hollins ranks in the 87th percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a fantastic 0.40 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to have only 125.6 offensive plays called: the 2nd-lowest number among all games this week.
  • The 10th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the New England Patriots this year (a lowly 54.8 per game on average).
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 27.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Bills defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
  • Mack Hollins has posted significantly fewer air yards this season (14.0 per game) than he did last season (40.0 per game).
  • Mack Hollins's 16.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 26.1.

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