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Mack Hollins Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+350/-510).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +355 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +350.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Right now, the 8th-most pass-focused team in the league in the red zone (59.2% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the New England Patriots.Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the model to have only 130.4 total plays called: the fewest out of all the games this week.The Denver Broncos defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (32.5 per game) this year.The Patriots O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.This year, the formidable Broncos run defense has conceded a measly 0.61 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing offenses: the 5th-smallest rate in football.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 4-point advantage, the Patriots are favored this week, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New England Patriots to pass on 55.4% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.The Patriots have run the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 47.3 plays per game.This year, the fierce Broncos defense has allowed a feeble 0.33 passing touchdowns per game to opposing wide receivers: the smallest rate in the league.
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