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Mack Hollins

Mack Hollins Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

New York Jets vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Mack Hollins Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+245/-295).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -305 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -295.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Patriots to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 60.0% red zone pass rate.
  • While Mack Hollins has received 7.8% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much bigger part of New England's offense near the end zone this week at 16.5%.
  • After accruing 40.0 air yards per game last year, Mack Hollins has produced significantly more this year, currently pacing 57.0 per game.
  • Mack Hollins's 37.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 26.1.
  • The New England O-line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all air attack metrics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's spread indicates an extreme running game script for the Patriots, who are a massive favorite by 13.5 points.
  • Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots to pass on 52.6% of their opportunities: the 5th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 5th-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 127.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The New York Jets defense has given up the 10th-fewest receiving touchdowns in football to wideouts: 0.80 per game this year.
  • This year, the poor New York Jets run defense has surrendered a colossal 1.20 touchdowns on the ground per game to opposing squads: the 6th-highest rate in the league.

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