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Mack Hollins Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+295/-380).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -350 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -380.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Giants defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 10th-most passes in the league (35.5 per game) this year.While Mack Hollins has garnered 9.8% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a much bigger part of New England's passing offense near the end zone in this week's contest at 15.0%.After accruing 40.0 air yards per game last season, Mack Hollins has shown good development this season, now averaging 45.0 per game.When talking about pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Patriots profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year.Mack Hollins's 74.3% Adjusted Completion Rate this year marks a significant progression in his receiving talent over last year's 66.2% figure.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 7-point advantage, the Patriots are heavily favored in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on running than their standard approach.The projections expect the Patriots to be the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 53.4% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Patriots are expected by the predictive model to call just 62.8 offensive plays in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week.This year, the poor Giants run defense has been torched for a massive 1.42 TDs on the ground per game to opposing squads: the biggest rate in football.The New York Giants safeties project as the 32nd-worst unit in football this year in regard to defending the run.
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