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Mack Hollins

Mack Hollins Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

New England Patriots vs New York Jets

 
 
 
Mack Hollins Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+245/-280).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -325 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -280.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect the New England Patriots to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 60.1% red zone pass rate.
  • The predictive model expects Mack Hollins to be much more involved in his team's passing game near the goal line in this game (18.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (11.9% in games he has played).
  • The Patriots O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
  • Mack Hollins's possession skills have improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 66.2% to 79.4%.
  • When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, New York's group of DTs has been terrific this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Patriots being a huge 12.5-point favorite this week.
  • The projections expect the New England Patriots to be the 2nd-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 51.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Right now, the 4th-most sluggish paced offense in football (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Patriots.
  • Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the Jets, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 31.6 per game) this year.
  • This year, the formidable New York Jets defense has conceded a paltry 0.78 TDs through the air per game to opposing wide receivers: the 10th-best rate in the NFL.

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